Demand for energy for motive power and mobile energy sources is projected to rise globally. To meet Net Zero targets, new sources of energy and delivery systems are needed.
Energy consumption is expected to rise both globally and per capita. Meeting the demand for that energy is expected to require significant though declining proportions of petroleum oil and gas. Eliminating Scopes 1 and 2 emissions is, therefore, just the start. What fuels, products and energy sources are needed to meet Net Zero targets of 2050?
Tackling Scope 3 emissions is a major problem. Providing customers with energy not powered by the exothermic oxidation of fossil carbon requires reconfiguring feedstock, products, and whole value chains. For existing and emerging products such as hydrogen, ammonia, sustainable aviation fuels, and renewable diesel, the technology is mature and understood. Where are the feedstocks is a critical question?
If exothermic oxidation of carbon is to be the energy source, then the carbon will need to have zero or negative intensity at delivery. Access to those feedstocks in 2050 will be as critical as access to crude oil and natural gas stocks are now. In addition, the pace of new technology development to convert these feedstocks into fungible fuels and chemicals is rapid. KBC keeps up-to-speed on new feedstock, technology, and product developments with a view to providing independent assessments of compatibility, profitability and operability of these new options from a technology user's perspective as contrasted with the vendors. Characterization of this growing family of new feedstocks is primarily carried out using Multiflash®.
KBC has a growing library of renewable feedstock assays and conversion technologies to allow a detailed understanding of the process, emissions, and margin implications of producing low carbon-intensity fuels.
KBC constantly monitors emerging gasification and pyrolysis technologies from many existing and emerging technology vendors. These plants typically breakdown ligno-cellulosic material into smaller hydrocarbon molecules with low carbon dioxide emissions. KBC evaluates these processes as greenfield businesses or integrated into current asset portfolios. The evaluations, which include technical maturity assessments, emissions intensity modeling, product compatibility, business margin performance and investment returns, are ideal for technology evaluation and licensor selection.
With plastics consumption projected to rise, globally, re-using plastics from landfill and daily recycling reduces demand for new carbon sources. KBC models the major recycling processes to understand the impact on product quality, emissions improvement, and operability implications as either a crude oil or cracker feed substitute. We have a proven track record of working with new process technology innovators.
Despite energy efficiency gains in traditional sectors in mature economies, global demand for energy is projected to increase. Net Zero emissions targets need to be reached within this context.
In most scenarios, a shift towards carbon neutral energy supply is expected, and more specifically, electricity from increasing solar, wind, geothermal and nuclear sources. The shift away from petroleum-based oil and gas is not expected to be dramatic.
KBC was engaged by a refiner to evaluate a proposed new technology for converting sugars as a petroleum feedstock substitute. The valuation covered technology, operating compatibility, and economic considerations. KBC’s analyses provided our client with key benefits and considerations including expected integration problems caused by fouling, large integration capital requirements not considered by the licensor (including hydrogen balance issues), and detailed financial implications.